Forecast of the price trend of black commodities in February
Construction steel: After the holiday, the supply elasticity will not be as good as the demand elasticity, the fundamentals of supply and demand are expected to improve rapidly, the inventory accumulation rate and speed will be lower than in previous years, and the inventory peak will be significantly lower than 2021, higher than 2019, the overall pressure is not large. Moreover, the raw material inventory cost of steel mills is high, and the profit is low. It is expected that domestic construction steel prices still have room to rise in February.
Hot-rolled coil: In terms of output, due to the fact that the production of steel mills in North China will be limited to varying degrees during the Winter Olympics, and the regular maintenance of steel mills during the Spring Festival will reduce production, it is expected that the increase in the output of hot-rolled coils in February will be limited, and the weekly output will remain at 3-3.2 million tons between.
In terms of inventory, the current total inventory is close to the level of the same period in previous years, the social inventory is basically the same in the same period, and the enthusiasm of traders for winter storage is lower than in previous years. In terms of demand, the terminal demand will rise after the holiday and express optimism, and believes that more steel demand will be released after the holiday, and there is a high probability that it will rise.
In general, after the Spring Festival, the Winter Olympics will continue to restrict production, and the production in February will likely drop month-on-month. With less pressure on market arrivals, and stimulated by the policy of stabilizing growth, downstream demand will recover rapidly with the resumption of work and production, and supply and demand will be balanced. . It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil in February will be stronger.
Cold rolled coil:
Under the reality that the current macro environment continues to improve, the market maintains relatively optimistic expectations for the post-holiday market, and the trade link believes that the post-holiday cold-rolled price will mainly rise.
However, if the macro expectations after the holiday are not well realized, under the pressure of supply and inventory, the price of cold-rolled coils may return to the reality of demand, showing a trend of rising first and then falling.
Steel billet: The current steel billet inventory is much lower than the same period in recent years, and the market is expected to be positive. For the pre-sale of direct dispatch resources during the Spring Festival, downstream billet manufacturers are more willing to take goods, which may lead to the accumulation of inventory during the Spring Festival is less than expected. With the end of the Winter Olympics, the downstream rolling mills will resume work, and the demand will be released intensively. Under the support of the high cost of blast furnaces, the price of steel billets will rise to a certain extent.
Post time: Feb-07-2022