On April 27, the domestic steel market price rose slightly, and the ex-factory price of Tangshan ordinary billet rose 20 to 4,740 yuan/ton. Affected by the rise in iron ore and steel futures, the steel spot market is sentimental, but after the steel price rebounded, the overall transaction volume was average.
Market prices of four major varieties of steel
Construction steel: On April 27, the average price of 20mm grade 3 seismic rebar in 31 major cities in China was 5,068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
Hot-rolled coil: On April 27, the average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in 24 major cities in China was 5,162 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
The recent futures market performance has been weak, and the trading logic has also changed from the weak reality and strong expectations of the previous transaction to weak reality and weak expectations. The impact of the trading epidemic has expanded, and it is difficult to significantly boost the short-term economy. After a wave of decline, with the proposal at the 11th meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee last night to stabilize economic growth and strengthen infrastructure construction, the market sentiment has been slightly boosted today, but there is still no significant improvement in the short term, and the supply of fundamentals has maintained a recovery. Trend, demand will continue to weaken in the short term, the backlog of factory warehouses and in-transit inventory will still be reflected in the market one after another, and the spot price will be under pressure as a whole, but there is not much room for deep decline. In the medium and long term, macro policy conditions are still needed. On the whole, it is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will remain under pressure in the short term and wait for marginal improvement.
Cold-rolled coil: On April 27, the average price of 1.0mm cold coil in 24 major cities in China was 5,658 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Merchants said that the recent market price is in a downward state, and the downstream is mostly holding a wait-and-see attitude, and as the futures rise, the enthusiasm of downstream purchasing may increase. In addition, as the May Day holiday is approaching, the market may release a small wave of stocking demand. To sum up, it is expected that the national cold-rolled coil price may fluctuate strongly on the 28th.
Steel market price forecast
After the panic selling on Monday, the steel market returned to rationality, especially the central government's emphasis on strengthening infrastructure construction in an all-round way, boosting confidence in the black futures market, coupled with the expectation of replenishment before the May Day, steel prices rebounded at a low level on Wednesday.
At present, the domestic epidemic situation is still complicated, and it is difficult for the demand to fully recover for the time being. The efficiency of steel mills is low, and some of them have already suffered losses. The production reduction is expected to restrain the price of raw materials and fuels. At present, the fundamentals of supply and demand in the steel market are weak, and the increase in the policy of stabilizing growth has certain support for market confidence. It is not necessary to be too pessimistic. Short-term steel prices may fluctuate.
Post time: Apr-28-2022