This week(22-29th August), the mainstream prices in the spot market fluctuated and rose as a whole. Generally speaking, the market turnover improved slightly, and the inventory of various varieties continued to decline slightly. At the same time, in view of the impact of the high price of coke and coal, it has a certain supporting effect on the price of various kinds of resources. In addition, although the traditional "golden September" month is coming, the prices of various varieties of resources will still fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term because there is no sign of continuous recovery of various varieties of resources in China.
Steel market inventory this week
1. Cold rolled coil
This week, the national cold rolled coil price fluctuated upward, and the market transaction was general. From a fundamental point of view, the cold rolled steel coil output increased week on month, the plant stock increased slightly, and the social stock decreased. Looking back on this week's cold rolled coil market, most merchants focus on shipment, the market transaction is general, and the low transaction is acceptable. From the perspective of cold rolled steel and hot rolled steel price difference, the price of hot-rolled raw materials is affected by the weak operation of electronic disk, the price decline is relatively large, and the average cold and hot price difference continues to expand to about 800 yuan / ton. According to the ordering of steel mills, since the market demand in August was still lower than expected, the merchants were more cautious in ordering in September. In addition, the settlement price feedback this month recognized that there was no profit or even upside down.
To sum up, from the supply side, some steel mills entered maintenance in September, and the supply of cold rolling decreased; In terms of market sentiment, near the end of the month, some merchants still have capital pressure and strong willingness to ship goods. It is not ruled out that there is a possibility of secretly dropping goods; Due to the lower than expected demand in July and August, the cold rolling social warehouse increased by about 10% year-on-year; The demand of traditional industries in the downstream shows no obvious signs of recovery.
2. Building steel
This week, the overall price of construction steel in China showed a strong trend of shock. The main reason is that the trend of screw night market at the end of last week was still good, market confidence was repaired, and market prices around the weekend were adjusted upward. In the week, due to the decline in transactions in the middle of the week and the lower than expected performance of national inventory data, the futures snail disk fell sharply, driving the market price to decline slightly. At the end of the week, the low level of futures snail disk rebounded sharply, the market transactions were centrally released, the business sentiment improved and the price rose. The whole week showed a strong trend of shock.
For next week: (A). In terms of supply, from the current production status of enterprises, long and short process enterprises are still affected by production and power restriction factors, but the degree of influence tends to weaken. In addition, the influencing factors leading to the increase or decrease of variety supply also include variety conversion and sales benefits. Therefore, for the current stage when the spot price has not deviated from the adjustment cycle, the upper limit space for supply growth will continue to be limited.
(B). In terms of demand, from the transaction data, the demand performance has improved this week, but the table demand data performance is not satisfactory. In addition, the national transaction value still fluctuates greatly, and the low value is still relatively low. However, Nanjing, Jiangsu has been gradually unsealed, and the risk value has been further reduced after the epidemic situation in Yangzhou has been controlled. The subsequent recovery of Jiangsu region will further increase the demand for.
(C). From the perspective of mentality, since the current national demand has not shown a sustained recovery, and the rise of resource prices has always lacked strong power support, market merchants are more cautious at this time. However, at present, the high price of double coke makes the production cost of steel mills close to that in the early stage. In the context of limited production, steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices after the occurrence of low prices
3. Shaped steel /Profile steel
This week, the supply and demand of profile steel market is still tight. Driven by macro factors, the spot performance is relatively strong. On the whole, in the first half of the week, the overall price in the spot market remained steadily stronger as the resumption of production was lower than expected and the blank price was stronger. However, after the middle of the week, the transaction of market resources is limited, and the futures disk is loose near the weekend, so the merchants operate to sell goods at a profit. At present, the national average price of industrial angle groove in mainstream cities in China has increased by 20-30 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the national average price of H-section steel has increased by 20 yuan / ton compared with last week.
First of all, it is expected that due to the relatively slow response speed of the current supply side, coupled with the low pressure on resources in the factory and warehouse, and the overall high level of blank price at the current stage, the attitude of long and short process enterprises towards the ex factory price is mostly strong, and the transfer of spot cost and profit is limited. Secondly, the demand side market at the current stage is limited in volume. Even if businesses in the spot market hold a tight attitude towards the supply of follow-up resources, due to the pressure of turnover and capital, conventional shipments restrain the price from rising significantly. Finally, next week will enter September. The market mentality is relatively optimistic about the basic demand forecast, but the stock replenishment in the overall market has not increased significantly, The pressure on social resources is small.
4. Steel Pipe Tube
Seamless pipe: the price of seamless pipe increased slightly this week. The average price of 108 * 4.5mm seamless pipe in 27 major cities was 6260 yuan / ton, up 6 yuan / ton compared with last week; Prices in most cities in China are mainly stable, and prices in some cities have increased by 30-50 yuan / ton. In terms of market: due to the sharp rise of double coke this week, the overall steel price of the whole country increased slightly, the market mentality improved slightly, the national seamless pipe transaction improved slightly compared with last week, and the traders mainly reduced the warehouse as a whole.
Inventory: the national seamless pipe social inventory was 739900 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2100 tons. This week, the mentality of merchants is general, but most merchants said that the enthusiasm of taking goods downstream this week has improved to a certain extent, and the transaction has increased to a certain extent compared with last week. At present, the mainstream intention of merchants is to reduce the stock at a stable price, and they have a good attitude towards the market situation in September.
Welded pipe: the domestic welded pipe market price rose this week, and the inventory increased slightly. The average price of 4-inch * 3.75mm welded pipe in 27 major cities in China was 5969 yuan / ton, up 19 yuan / ton from the average price of 5950 yuan / ton last Friday. In terms of inventory: the national inventory of welded pipes on August 27 was 912,000 tons, an increase of 6800 tons compared with 905,200 tons last Friday. In terms of demand, the natural conditions of downstream construction have improved and the demand has gradually recovered. However, due to the high steel price, the downstream procurement is cautious and wait-and-see, and the transaction is not as good as that of the same period last year. In terms of supply, due to the impact of the shortage of strip steel resources in Tangshan, some domestic welded pipe production has been affected. Therefore, the situation of weak supply and demand last week continued this week. In terms of cost, the price shock of strip steel billet is weakening, and the supporting effect on the price of welded pipe is weak.
Supply and demand analysis of steel market
Overall, the domestic steel market price generally showed a shock upward this week. First of all, from the perspective of supply, the overall supply of steel mills has not increased significantly at this stage, and the downstream demand is a little large. However, due to the tight downstream funds, the market transaction is still not as expected. In terms of inventory, the social library resources decreased slightly this week, the table demand data continued to rise, and the market was still relatively optimistic about the middle and later period.
Post time: Aug-30-2021